📊 Signal Scoreboard — March 31, 2026
Reddit vs. Wall Street — weekly signal performance report. March 31, 2026.
🏆 Performance
5-day record: 5W–4L (55.6% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $2,700 deployed → $954.51 ([+6.1% return on scored positions)
We're winning more than we're losing—barely. But half our signals are still too fresh to grade. The real test starts next week when the 10-day cohort fully matures.
📋 This Week's Signals Scored (5-Day)
$GOOGL — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: March 15 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.8
- What Reddit said: Retail bearish on search moat erosion; mainstream media mostly silent
- Entry price: $180.12 → 5-day close: $172.25 (-4.4%)**
- Result: Short position hit. Reddit's skepticism on AI optionality proved prescient. Media's silence meant no counterbalance to retail conviction.
$USO — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: March 17 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.0
- What Reddit said: Retail defensive on geopolitical premium; mainstream hyped supply disruption upside
- Entry price: $118.84 → 5-day close: $117.26 (-1.3%)**
- Result: Clean short. This was our best-scored signal by gap magnitude. Retail's skepticism of the rally narrative proved correct.
$FNMA — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.8
- What Reddit said: Retail bullish on policy tailwinds; mainstream fixated on structural risk
- Entry price: $5.56 → 5-day close: $7.36 (+32.4%)**
- Result: Massive win. This is what the thesis looks like when it works. Reddit positioned ahead of a real policy shift that mainstream financial media had written off.
$META — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.7
- What Reddit said: Retail extremely bearish on regulatory risk; mainstream coverage muted
- Entry price: $498.40 → 5-day close: $455.20 (-8.7%)**
- Result: Short winner. Reddit's early conviction on regulatory headwinds beat mainstream's slower reaction time.
$USO (2nd signal) — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.75
- What Reddit said: Retail suddenly bullish on tactical long; mainstream hadn't caught up
- Entry price: $117.80 → 5-day close: $138.23 (+17.4%)**
- Result: Long winner. Same ticker, opposite signal, different sentiment window. Retail nailed the intraweek reversal.
$SPX — ❌ Reddit Lost
- Signal date: March 19 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.68
- What Reddit said: Retail bullish on 0DTE tactical plays with proven edge; mainstream neutral
- Entry price: $6,606.49 → 5-day close: $6,343.72 (-3.98%)**
- Result: Long failed. Retail's 0DTE confidence didn't translate to broader market conviction. Gap score of 0.68 (weaker than 0.8+) may have been a tell.
$SMCI — ❌ Reddit Lost
- Signal date: March 21 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.1
- What Reddit said: Retail bullish, framing indictment as buying opportunity; mainstream bearish
- Entry price: $21.58 → 5-day close: $21.06 (-2.4%)**
- Result: Long failed. High gap score (1.1) proved no edge here. Legal overhang stronger than retail sentiment could overcome.
$NVDA — ❌ Reddit Lost
- Signal date: March 14 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.9
- What Reddit said: Retail bullish on AI demand; mainstream coverage mixed
- Entry price: $132.45 → 5-day close: $119.38 (-9.9%)**
- Result: Long failed hard. Gap score of 0.9 gave us false confidence. Broader selloff in semis overwhelmed local retail sentiment.
$MU — ❌ Reddit Lost
- Signal date: March 13 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.85
- What Reddit said: Retail optimistic on memory cycle inflection; mainstream skeptical
- Entry price: $108.72 → 5-day close: $107.65 (-0.8%)**
- Result: Long barely negative. Sector headwind. Gap score ≥0.8 on tech longs is showing weakness.
⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked (5–14 days old)
| Ticker | Signal Date | Gap Type | Gap Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 03/23 | Negative | 0.62 | 8d old |
| MSFT | 03/23 | Positive | 0.75 | 8d old |
| SPY | 03/24 | Negative | 0.55 | 7d old |
| SPX | 03/25 | Negative | 0.72 | 6d old |
| MSFT | 03/25 | Positive | 0.68 | 6d old |
| SPY | 03/27 | Positive | 0.71 | 4d old |
| CL | 03/28 | Positive | 0.58 | 3d old |
| META | 03/29 | Negative | 0.65 | 2d old |
| SLV | 03/29 | Negative | 0.61 | 2d old |
| SSNLF | 03/29 | Positive | 0.52 | 2d old |
| ROST | 03/30 | Negative | 0.59 | 1d old |
| WEN | 03/30 | Positive | 0.48 | 1d old |
| PBR.A | 03/30 | Positive | 0.55 | 1d old |
| AMC | 03/31 | Positive | 0.41 | <1d old |
| SPX | 03/31 | Negative | 0.63 | <1d old |
| MSFT | 03/31 | Positive | 0.72 | <1d old |
| V | 03/31 | Negative | 0.58 | <1d old |
| TSLA | 03/31 | Negative | 0.64 | <1d old |
D-Day count: 10 signals scored. Threshold is 10. We hit it. Full report next Monday.
🔬 What Is This?
US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.
How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later
The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal